Will we stay up?

[standupsitdown]

And to make things worse, Scunthorpe winning at Halifax.

[standupsitdown]

Scunthorpe won. Level on points with us now.
Maidstone bottom and played more games than anyone.
We simply have to beat them on Saturday.

[DevonBee]

And to make things worse, Scunthorpe winning at Halifax.

Full time and an away win for them..........new owners, or just a pure coincidence !

Saturday might just be a 6 pointer.........or do some still think it is too early to mention 6 pointers at this stage

[North Curry House]

And to make things worse, Scunthorpe winning at Halifax.

All over Scunny won 1-0. No big surprise, Halifax could not score against us in two matches. The bottom teams are starting to win a few matches, we MUST beat Maidstone on Saturday, or we could be bottom !

Just hope our new recruits, hit the ground running.

[desperado]

I know it's not strictly all over if we don't win Saturday , but I really feel we are going down if we don't.
I know I'm repeating myself but Maidstone have conceded 40 goals in 14 away games !! and 65 in total !
They must be beaten or there is no hope for us.

[bobbytanz1963]

One thing to bear in mind in relation to Scunny is the winding up petition issued by HMRC. Does the new owner have the money to settle this ? If not then it may be Administration and a points deduction ?

[Cheddargull]

One thing to bear in mind in relation to Scunny is the winding up petition issued by HMRC. Does the new owner have the money to settle this ? If not then it may be Administration and a points deduction ?

The new owner has talked about settling the winding up order in the next couple of days and getting the transfer embargo lifted, which is one of the main reasons Scunthorpe are in the mess they are in.

[Willowgull]

I suspect he wouldn't have taken over Scunthorpe if there weren't the funds to satisfy HMRC.
I thought Scunthorpe were dead and buried but perhaps this takeover makes it even harder for us to stay up if they have new investment?
Like some have said, this Saturday is a must win game for me.
We could do with a good attendance and everyone getting behind the team.

[SuperNickyWroe]

Rename this thread will we finish bottom?

We are miles behind Oldham and Yeovil.

Battle between us Scunny and Maidstone is for bottom place not survival.

Blimey. Big question is will we stay up 23/24 in the South.

FFS give it a rest....
Would you kindly allow the team with the new additions to play first?

[Southampton Gull]

FFS give it a rest....
Would you kindly allow the team with the new additions to play first?

Never argue with an idiot......

Emet knows the rest

[SuperNickyWroe]

Never argue with an idiot......

Emet knows the rest

[standupsitdown]

In terms of points required:

Looking at the last 8 seasons the average number of points per game required to finish one above relegation is 1.00 - 46 points from a 46 game season.

Based on this season’s points per game to date we would need 47 points to finish one above relegation (above Oldham).

Taking the higher of these, as we are currently on 22 points we’d need another 25 from 20 games. That is 1.25 points per game, which over a season would give a mid-table position (currently about 15th).

So despite what some have been saying, we’re not certain to go down, needing a miracle etc- we just need to pick up to mid-table form and that should b e enough to pull ahead d of two teams including taking account of the games in hand that some of our rivals have.

Of course it’s easy to say that but we still need to get the points – maybe 7 wins, 4 draws & 9 defeats from our remaining 20 games.

To update this:

Based on this season’s points per game to date we would need 50 points to finish one above relegation (above Dorking).

As we are currently on 25 points we’d need another 25 from 19 games. That is 1.32 points per game, which over a season would give a mid-table position (currently about 11th).

So despite today's win, as other clubs have picked up points in the last week or so, it looks as the likely points to stay up may have increased and we will need maybe 7 wins, 4 draws & 9 defeats from our remaining 19 games.

Of course other clubs' form may improve or worsen. Good news in Dorking dropping down the table and our game there will be crucial.

[thebigp1]

To update this:

Based on this season’s points per game to date we would need 50 points to finish one above relegation (above Dorking).

As we are currently on 25 points we’d need another 25 from 19 games. That is 1.32 points per game, which over a season would give a mid-table position (currently about 11th).

So despite today's win, as other clubs have picked up points in the last week or so, it looks as the likely points to stay up may have increased and we will need maybe 7 wins, 4 draws & 9 defeats from our remaining 19 games.

Of course other clubs' form may improve or worsen. Good news in Dorking dropping down the table and our game there will be crucial.

I’ve always thought we are going to need at least 50 points to give ourselves a chance. It looks much more competitive in terms of relegation this season. Last season only 3 went down and they were a fair way adrift. There are no whipping boys this season and with big clubs like Oldham, Scunthorpe etc they will feel like us that they shouldn’t be down there in the first place.

Dorking look like the one side above us who could be dragged into it. Defensively they are woeful but we still have to make 5 points up on them and get above at least 3 others. Halifax are solid enough to stay up and Yeovil seem to be improving. Aldershot are another although they have picked up a decent little run and have a decent gap from the bottom 4. I still think we will go down as we have given ourselves too much to do.

[Mr Tea808]

Still a huge task for me, especially with the games we've got coming up, the next 10 are huge, very tough fixtures, We may just nick safety, but wouldn't surprise me if we dropped

[standupsitdown]

I’ve looked at the fixtures and grouped them into categories based on how difficult the games are and estimated how many points we might get based on current form.

1. Teams competing for championship.
2. Teams competing for play offs
3. Teams in mid table with little to play for
4. Teams competing to avoid relegation.

1.

Notts Co. H
Wrexham H

No wins or draws from 2 games

2.

Woking A
Barnet H
Southend H
Bromley H
Solihull A
Wealdstone H
Dagenham H
Boreham Wood A
Eastleigh H
Chesterfield A

2 wins & 3 draws from 10 games

3.

Aldershot A
Maidenhead A
York H
Altringham A

2 wins & 1 draw from 4 games

4.

Dorking A
Gateshead A
Scunthorpe A

2 wins & 0 draws from 3 games

That would give us 22 points taking us to 47.

It seems that around 50 us likely to be required to stay up, so we’d need to find another win from somewhere. Maybe win 3 out of the 6 home games against clubs chasing play offs.

Major concern is simply are we good enough to beat teams well above us in the table. Best hope is poor teams, teams off form and teams with nothing to play for – the number of which will increase as the season goes on. Hopefully Wrexham will have won the league or be safe in second by the last match of the season but I suspect that if we stay up it will happen by winning at Altringham.

Looking at our fixtures like this show how hard they are.

3 games against relegation contenders, all away. Simply must win at least two of these.

12 games against teams looking for promotion /play offs.

Only 4 against teams with little to play for – hopefully that will increase by the time we play some of the fixtures.

2 to write off.

We just managed to beat poor Halifax & Maidstone sides but have a poor record against top half clubs. We are going to need a significant improvement in order to stay up. I’m less optimistic having looked closely at our fixtures.