Can We Make the Play Offs?

[DerekDawkinsJnr]

Also worth looking over our shoulders. Southend have been flying recently...16 points from last 18....

[Dave_Pougher]

Last game away to Southend !
Surely it’s a sign O Lord?

[Dave_Pougher]

It gets worse! Found this today!

[Chrisjb66]

Need a formidable, fit striker! Then we’ll do it!!!

[DerekDawkinsJnr]

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Surely a positive omen. That's the game that got us promoted.

[happytorq]

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What a brilliant day that was. My plan is to also be there last day this season, too.

[standupsitdown]

We’re now eight points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and have played more than most of our rivals.

We need to overtake three of Grimsby, Notts Co, Wrexham & Solihull, and assume that in doing so we’ll also overtake Dagenham. Also can’t discount Southend, who although three points behind us are on an excellent run, have a game in hand (and play us last game of the season).

If we gave one point for each game in hand Notts Co, Wrexham & Solihull would all have 50 and Grimsby 46. So we’d need to make up 9 points in 16 games (10 unless our goal difference improves considerably).

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date (1.85 per game) we would need 81 points. Another 40.
That would be 2.50 per game. Say 13 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats.

If the 7th placed team gained only 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season we would need 75 points. Another 34.
That would be 2.12 per game. Say 11 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 19 - in 16 games.

I’d therefore suggest that we’ll need between 77 & 81 points to get 7th. Say we’d need 78 points, 2.31 per game, another 37 points.
That could be 12 wins, 1 draws, 3 defeats.

Whether the team is good enough to reach the play offs is of course doubtful but our draw and other results today mean that realistically the hope of sneaking into the play offs is over. Fail to beat Boreham Wood on Tuesday and we can give up all hope.

[Nick Potkins]

As I said on 5th January, sadly not. It has been a fantastic run and we have kept the hope alive for a while.

[Wolborough]

We will not make the playoffs. Mid table if we are lucky.

[Plainmoor78]

There was never any point in making the playoffs because we simply don't have the nucleus of a team capable of surviving in League 2.

[Chrisjb66]

Plainmoor78 nailed it. Osborne would have to double his costly investment to acquire the players needed in this highly competitive and costly league!
And….how the heck do we consistently win games when our central striker doesn’t play for 90(or even 75) minutes?
Aacchhh.

[Gloomy Gull]

There seems to be little prospect of us making the play offs when Johnson is consistently saying in post match interviews that "we had number of players not quite on song" or similar.

In addition, I feel the lack of using recognised forwards doesn't help. we have Lolos and Holman (who operates best in a 2 not as a single striker) and maybe Koszela, but Johnson seems reluctant to give them any sort of run in the team. Putting someone on for the last 10 to 30 minutes every few games is hardly going to allow them time to integrate with the team - we have been lucky since Wright's injury that we have managed to find goals from the midfield and makeshift strikers, but that will not be enough to gain the points required to make a play off position.

I am not advocating that any of those players have the requisite skill level, but they do train as a striker and need time in a team to develop. They are unlikely to become prolific just training.

I also agree with P78 & Chris66 that we do not have the nucleus of a squad that would succeed in League 2 and that would require a major overhaul of the players with the cost that brings.

[standupsitdown]

I know some people (not many!) still think we have a chance of the play offs so I thought I’d look at the figures again.

We’re now 10 points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and would be more than 10 behind if Bromley take more than two points from their two games in hand.

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date we would need 77 points. Another 33 from 13 games.
That would be 2.54 per game. Say 11 wins, 2 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 19 in 13 games.

Maybe the points total required might be slightly lower as teams are dropping points to each other but to have any chance we’d need to win at least 10 of our last 13 games.

So still not mathematically impossible but extremely unlikely especially as although our form has improved it hasn’t reached that level.

[MellowYellow]

There was never any point in making the playoffs because we simply don't have the nucleus of a team capable of surviving in League 2.

I thought that about Sutton when they got promoted.

[North Curry House]

I know some people (not many!) still think we have a chance of the play offs so I thought I’d look at the figures again.

We’re now 10 points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and would be more than 10 behind if Bromley take more than two points from their two games in hand.

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date we would need 77 points. Another 33 from 13 games.
That would be 2.54 per game. Say 11 wins, 2 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 19 in 13 games.

Maybe the points total required might be slightly lower as teams are dropping points to each other but to have any chance we’d need to win at least 10 of our last 13 games.

So still not mathematically impossible but extremely unlikely especially as although our form has improved it hasn’t ereached that level.

Why are we still talking about the playoffs
We have been nowhere near 7th and should now set our sights on next season