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Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 16:35
by SuperNickyWroe
standupsitdown wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 15:39
I agree that it will probably be two from Torquay, Woking & Braintree, to join Ferriby & Southport.
York have fairly easy fixtures and are in form.
Maidstone have seven games to play, not easy fixtures, but are also on form – 10 points from last 4 games.
Fixtures are -
Woking -
Barrow A
Macclesfield H
Chester A
York H
Dagenham A
Braintree -
Dover H
Guisley H
Torquay A
Barrow H
Aldershot A
Current points & GD are –
Braintree 45 -20
Woking 44 -16
Torquay 43 -11
Hopefully York won’t be safe when they play Woking & Dagenham won’t be assured of playoff spot, otherwise those games will become easier for Woking.
I’d estimate 7 points for Woking taking them to 52.
We have to assume that we’ll beat Braintree to have any hope, but I estimate 6 points for Braintree taking them to 51.
In that case, assuming we lose at Lincoln but don’t get a hammering that brings down our goal difference, then we’ll need to bear Ferriby (as well as Braintree) and win at either Aldershot or Dover.
Aldershot is crucial. Lose that and Lincoln and we’ll be adrift, probably needing to win the last three matches to have much hope, including Dover away.
Looking at York & Maidstone, I can’t see them not reaching at least 51, so we’d still need 8 points, and as I can’t see anything other than defeats at Lincoln & Dover, that means winning at Aldershot, who have won their last four and need the points to stay in the play offs.
It’s not looking good.
the thing is, anything can happen.....
that's why I hate predictions!
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 16:51
by torregull
I think you also have to factor in our wafer-thin squad.Nicho might have been minded to rest some players for the Lincoln game,concentrating all effort and energy for the game two days later against Braintree.As it is he could maybe play himself,Chaney and at a push Hancox,and rest two or three,but he's really he's got very little room to make such changes.A couple of new loanees would have allowed some rotation without weakening the team significantly.The decision not to bring any new faces in makes an already very difficult task that much harder.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:08
by Dazza
We will lose to Aldershot I'm afraid 3-1, beat Braintree 2-1, lose to both to Lincoln and Dover 1-0 and beat North Ferriby 1-0 with a last minute volley from 35 yards from Young. We thus survive on goal difference just nudging out Woking on goal difference. Braintree to trip over on 48 points.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:19
by SenorDingDong
torregull wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 16:51
I think you also have to factor in our wafer-thin squad.Nicho might have been minded to rest some players for the Lincoln game,concentrating all effort and energy for the game two days later against Braintree.As it is he could maybe play himself,Chaney and at a push Hancox,and rest two or three,but he's really he's got very little room to make such changes.A couple of new loanees would have allowed some rotation without weakening the team significantly.The decision not to bring any new faces in makes an already very difficult task that much harder.
Resting too many players could lead to a tanking, undermining the player's already fragile confidence/mentality (this team is seriously mentally weak even at the best of times) and ruining our goal difference, which is one of the few positives of our current situation.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:28
by standupsitdown
A heavy defeat at Lincoln could be the equivalent of getting minus one point, which we certainly can't afford.
Braintree will have played on the Saturday too so hopefully that will even up the tiredness.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:39
by lucy6lucy
Defeats to aldershot and Lincoln will make the Braintree game irrelevant. York and Woking by then will be 4/5 points clear of us.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:53
by Jerry
Jon posted a table on the TFF a couple of weeks ago that showed in games played against the top 8 we were third in the table whereas in games played against the bottom 8 we were bottom.
http://torquayfansforum.co.uk/thread/12174/top-8-bottom
So those predicting wins against Braintree and North Ferriby but defeats in the other 3 games may have it back to front.
Let's not forget also that Leyton Orient are teetering on the edge of administration (or even liquidation). If this were to happen (not that I would wish this on any club's fans) then I believe that fourth from bottom would be enough to stay up.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 18:59
by standupsitdown
Jerry wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 18:53
Let's not forget also that Leyton Orient are teetering on the edge of administration (or even liquidation). If this were to happen (not that I would wish this on any club's fans) then I believe that fourth from bottom would be enough to stay up.
Wouldn't administration just mean they started next season in the National League on minus ten points?
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 19:26
by lucy6lucy
standupsitdown wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 18:59
Wouldn't administration just mean they started next season in the National League on minus ten points?
I honestly guessing, but if they are liquidated then unsure what happens. That was helpful wasn't it
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 19:41
by Jerry
standupsitdown wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 18:59
Wouldn't administration just mean they started next season in the National League on minus ten points?
Orient fans believe they won't be accepted by the National League whilst they are in administration, don't know how true that is.
http://leytonorientforum.co.uk/topic20057.html
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 19:55
by Jerry
lucy6lucy wrote: ↑03 Apr 2017, 19:26
I honestly guessing, but if they are liquidated then unsure what happens. That was helpful wasn't it
There have been a catalogue of clubs going bust in the conference in recent years and the side in the final relegation spot is always reprieved. Altrincham survived for 3 seasons on the trot due to this (2006, 2007 and 2008).
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 20:07
by merse btpir
Are this pathetic Torquay United side as it looks now even capable of finishing out of the bottom two? I don't think so. Just three wins in eighteen from a bunch of serial quitters and losers
The National League will not accept Orient in this financial mess; and that is if they even survive liquidation, which if it does occur opens the way for a phoenix club going cap in hand to the likes of local football on a scale their fans are going to be absolutely shocked at.
Orient (if they survive the summer) are more than likely going to be accommodated one level below Ryman League standard which would be the Essex Senior League because the Isthmian League (as it will soon revert to being called has it's own strict standards unless the EVO-STIK Southern League take them at second tier.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 21:16
by Dazza
i see your advice to get behind the team for the remainder of the season on BTPIR hasn't transplanted too well on here Merse !' What really is the point in criticising the team at this juncture? Yes I,m sure we could all have wished we aren't where we are,but pillarising them at this stage is ridiculous.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 22:05
by TUST_Member_Rob
whats the point in giving up?
Im sure no-one expected North Ferriby to win away at FGR
Lots of matches which have effects at both end of the table for a lot of sides.
Can we Survive? 10 Games Remaining.
Posted: 03 Apr 2017, 22:15
by Dazza
Exactly Rob. If we pick up six points it may well fall in our favour.