We Will Survive My Prediction.

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 17 Feb 2014, 10:17

In 75 days we will know for sure if we are going to retain our League status.

The last 2 games could be key Mansfield Away and Wycombe Home.

I am an optimist so here are my wildly optimistic predictions simply because I believe Chris Hargreaves is a WINNER.

Acc Stanley Home Win 3 points
Burton Home Win 3
H'Pool Away Draw 1
F'Wood Home Draw 1
R'Dale Home Draw 1
Cheltenham Away Draw 1
Bury Home Win 3
Newport Home Win 3
York Away Lose 0
Southend Away Lose 0
Scunthorpe Home Draw 1
Rovers Away Draw 1

Daggers Home Win 3
Exeter Away Draw 1
Mansfield Away Draw 1

Wycombe Home Win 3

6wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats will give us 55 points and safety.

I believe our luck in front of goal will change and 2 of the loan signings will get the goals if Jesus insists on shoot on sight and work the goalkeeper which we have not been doing. Priority is to get the ball in the penalty box quickly and the goals will come.

A couple of good wins will change everything and most important the team will enjoy playing again. At the moment they are getting uses to losing and this mus stop now if we are going to survive.

brucie · Post by **brucie** » 17 Feb 2014, 10:29

You are mad

hector · Post by **hector** » 17 Feb 2014, 10:38

I think your predictions are a little generous and it is depressing to think that even if we did as you suggest, it would only harvest enough points to get 55 overall.

I think we will lose more than 2 but it might be that we nick another away win which would be worth 3 of those draws. I certainly think that we have to win 4 of the next 6 home games and as you list, there are four winnable games there.

The way Exeter play at home, if we are on a decent run, then we could nick something there and also York away is a place we could maybe do better than a draw, while I would expect us to possibly lose the home games to Fleetwood, Scunny and 'dale.

Post by **Dave** » 17 Feb 2014, 10:44

Trouble is, when doing these predictions, it's so easy to led the heart rule the head, we can stay up no doubt, but things on the filed have to change pretty quickly.

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 17 Feb 2014, 11:34

Hector you are right Fleetwood, Scunthorpe and Rochdale will be very tough games.I know I am being optimistic but it is the same problem for all the teams at the wrong end of the table.

Outright wins at least 6 from 16 are absolutely vital.

TeenageGull · Post by **TeenageGull** » 17 Feb 2014, 11:46

I would like to think this is true but since we have won 2 games at home all season, only 2 losses for the rest of the season is crazy I'm sorry to say

Yellow4life · Post by **Yellow4life** » 17 Feb 2014, 11:47

Acc Stanley Home Win 3 points
Burton Home Draw 1
H'Pool Away Draw 1
F'Wood Home lose 0
R'Dale Home Draw 1
Cheltenham Away Win 3
Bury Home Draw 1
Newport Home Draw 1
York Away Lose 0
Southend Away Lose 0
scunthorpe Home Draw 1
Rovers Away Lose 0

Daggers Home Win 3
Exeter Away Draw 1
Mansfield Away win 3

Wycombe Home Win 3

22 points in my opinion at a push.

Post by **Dave** » 17 Feb 2014, 11:53

I went through the fixtures portugull before the Northampton game, strangely enough came up with the same 55 pts end total that you have, then thought how much of my predictions was more me wishing for the results, than me actually thinking about whether the team were capable of getting the results.

Problem on my predictions is I had us getting 3 pts from Northampton 0pts from Chesterfield so my end total is already down to 52 pts, margin of error running out already.

Post by **SuperNickyWroe** » 17 Feb 2014, 14:32

portugull wrote:In 75 days we will know for sure if we are going to retain our League status.

The last 2 games could be key Mansfield Away and Wycombe Home.

I am an optimist so here are my wildly optimistic predictions simply because I believe Chris Hargreaves is a WINNER.

Acc Stanley Home Win 3 points
Burton Home Win 3
H'Pool Away Draw 1
F'Wood Home Draw 1
R'Dale Home Draw 1
Cheltenham Away Draw 1
Bury Home Win 3
Newport Home Win 3
York Away Lose 0
Southend Away Lose 0
scunthorpe Home Draw 1
Rovers Away Draw 1

Daggers Home Win 3
Exeter Away Draw 1
Mansfield Away Draw 1

Wycombe Home Win 3

6wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats will give us 55 points and safety.

I believe our luck in front of goal will change and 2 of the loan signings will get the goals if Jesus insists on shoot on sight and work the goalkeeper which we have not been doing. Priority is to get the ball in the penalty box quickly and the goals will come.

A couple of good wins will change everything and most important the team will enjoy playing again. At the moment they are getting uses to losing and this mus stop now if we are going to survive.

im all for optimism, but I think you must have had too much sun where you are if you think we are going to get (anywhere near) 55 points.

Gazzableedsgull · Post by **Gazzableedsgull** » 17 Feb 2014, 15:56

Acc Stanley Home Win 3
Burton Home Draw 1
H'Pool Away loss 0
F'Wood Home Draw 1
R'Dale Home loss 0
Cheltenham Away loss 0
Bury Home draw 1
Newport Home Win 3
York Away Loss 0
Southend Away Lose 0
scunthorpe Home loss 0
Rovers Away Draw 1

Daggers Home Win 3
Exeter Away loss 0
Mansfield Away Draw loss 0

Wycombe Home draw 1

I make it 14 points .. Takes us to 43 .. Hello non league

Robiberto22 · Post by **Robiberto22** » 17 Feb 2014, 17:03

For what it's worth, heres mine ...

Accy Home Win 3 points
Burton Home Win 3
H'Pool Away Draw 1
F'Wood Home Lose 0
R'Dale Home Draw 1
Cheltenham Away Draw 1
Bury Home Win 3
Newport Home Win 3
York Away Lose 0
Southend Away Lose 0
scunthorpe Home Lose 0
Rovers Away Draw 1

Daggers Home Win 3
Exeter Away Draw 1
Mansfield Away Lose 0

Wycombe Home Win 3

That has us finishing on 52, I think i,m not being too generous ans to be fair there are more than a few games in there that in my opinion are 50/50 The burys at home and rovers away for example .

Needless to say there will be many twists and turns before the end!

Just out of interest, does anyone know the average amount of points you need for survival?

OllieGull · Post by **OllieGull** » 17 Feb 2014, 17:11

I think depending on our position we could potentially get 9 points from the last 3, Exeter's home form is woeful and it being a derby and everything... Mansfield same story 3 wins at home all season, and Wycombe last game of the season crunch with us beating them 1-0!

stefano · Post by **stefano** » 17 Feb 2014, 18:10

Robiberto22 wrote:
Just out of interest, does anyone know the average amount of points you need for survival?

I don't know an average but the answer has to be to keep two clubs below you as the number of points for the team in 23rd has varied considerably.

Until last season 50 was always regarded as the target as no team had ever got relegated with that number of points. 49 was the previous highest (Exeter's relegation to the Conference was with 48). Last season though Barnet went through the trapdoor in 23rd with 51 points.

There have been a few relegated teams with early to mid-30's total points, but there is no indication that will happen this season.

I think it will be on the high side again, so let's get out of this bottom two as soon as possible and then stay out of the bottom two!

Post by **Dave** » 17 Feb 2014, 18:40

We have 29 points from 30 games currently, if I've worked this out correctly I make an average of 0.96 points per game, that would give us a final points total of 44/45 points, and we would need a huge slice of luck to stay in the league.

Last season as Stef rightly points out, Barnet went down on 51 points but only on goal difference, difficult to work an exact average because no one knows what the final needed points total will be, I've worked it on 52 points needed, which would require an average of 1.43 points per game, some way above were we currently are in terms of average, or 7.6 wins from our last 16 games.

harbertongull · Post by **harbertongull** » 19 Feb 2014, 19:48

WE WILL SURVIVE!

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