Play off Winners to Final League Position Comparison

[GulldenBoy]

I was curious to see how final league positions have influenced the Play Off winner since they started 25 years ago so I had a trawl through the data and this is what I came up with:

Final League Positions - 4th: 12 winners (last winner 2008) [finalist 17 times]
Final League Positions - 5th: 4 winners (last winner 2009) [finalist 14 times]
Final League Positions - 6th: 6 winners (last winner 2011) [finalist 12 times]
Final League Positions - 7th: 3 winners (last winner 2010) [finalist 7 times]

I must admit that in a strange way I was surprised that the highest placed team has won by far the most times as you always think that they'll be the most disappointed and demoralised going into the play offs.

Also, it also dispels the myth that the team who makes the late charge and sneaks in usually does well.

One positive is that the 5th placed team has made it to the final 14 out of the 25 times.

Notes: 1991 season play off positions went from 5th to 8th so I shifted them all up one to correspond. 1987 and 1988 only 4th, 5th, and 6th teams from what is now League 2 where in it, the fourth team came from the what is now League 1.

[ferrarilover]

Your numbers are incorrect, close, but incorrect. I'm offering a cookie to anyone who knows how I know.

Matt.

[yellow]

You know because you are very clever? I claim a fig roll.

Back to the OP;

So over the last four years the winner has finished in each one of the four play-off positions. That is statistically neat if not particularly helpful as a guide.

I too was surprised that 4th place is dominant. It is obviously an urban myth that it is a dodgy starting point.

Back in the early days of the play-offs it always seemed that way though. When we lost to Swansea in 1988 we were well ahead of them in the league (by 7 points), and thankfully that was mirrored when we beat Blackpool in 1991.

My own feeling remains that they are a lottery. You have a 1 in 4 chance of promotion, which come to think of it is what the last four years points to.

[Plymouth Gull]

Your numbers are incorrect, close, but incorrect. I'm offering a cookie to anyone who knows how I know.

Matt.

I know.

The winner of 4th v 7th has been in the final 26 times, whilst the 5th v 6th tie only 24.

Interesting stats, albeit irrelevant in my mind.

[ferrarilover]

Nick gets a chocolate Digestive. Yellow, however, gets a fig roll as a bonus point for being such a sweetie.

Matt.

[Plymouth Gull]

How is a chocolate digestive a cookie? LIAR.

[ferrarilover]

How is a chocolate digestive a cookie? LIAR.

Alright, grumpy, you choose the **** ing prize then... :~D

Matt.

[GulldenBoy]

I know.

The winner of 4th v 7th has been in the final 26 times, whilst the 5th v 6th tie only 24.

Interesting stats, albeit irrelevant in my mind.

And to think I got an A-Level in Maths

[Plymouth Gull]

Hehe, so did I!