Can We Make the Play Offs?

[Teigngull]

At the risk of being shot down in flames by the usual suspects.
Losing Armstrong & Sparkes is a massive hit in quality that will unlikely be replicated by what will be available to us, Perrit not so much.
Horses for courses in this league will get you results, not namby pamby U23 show ponies, players who, as said by GJ, need to be Torquified & so far I haven't seen much of that this season, it's getting there but for this season I'm afraid we'll all gave to hang in to the derby wins as our high point moments.
We aint going up & we ain't going down, I don't think trying to scrape into & maybe fluking the playoffs will do us any favours in the long run, they say you should never look a gift horse in the mouth but as a club we need to be ready to compete in the EFL ( if we get there ) and right now we're not ready..
Let's use the rest of this season to recruit PROPERLY for a change, 1 or 2 rough diamonds a seasoned old pro who can play more than at a 1 in 5 off ratio , the structures there for a successful competitive football club let's realise our potential .

[DerekDawkinsJnr]

At the risk of being shot down in flames by the usual suspects.
Losing Armstrong & Sparkes is a massive hit in quality that will unlikely be replicated by what will be available to us, Perrit not so much.
Horses for courses in this league will get you results, not namby pamby U23 show ponies, players who, as said by GJ, need to be Torquified & so far I haven't seen much of that this season, it's getting there but for this season I'm afraid we'll all gave to hang in to the derby wins as our high point moments.
We aint going up & we ain't going down, I don't think trying to scrape into & maybe fluking the playoffs will do us any favours in the long run, they say you should never look a gift horse in the mouth but as a club we need to be ready to compete in the EFL ( if we get there ) and right now we're not ready..
Let's use the rest of this season to recruit PROPERLY for a change, 1 or 2 rough diamonds a seasoned old pro who can play more than at a 1 in 5 off ratio , the structures there for a successful competitive football club let's realise our potential .

Very sensible words indeed. Couldn't agree more. We will I am sure be mid table and should be looking to build a solid team for next season. Not sure how straight forward that will be, and much depends on availability of Wright, Moxey, Little, et al in 2022/23. Above all though, need GJ to keep on keeping on. It took him couple years to assemble the team which were denied at Ashton Gate.

This term though we have been well entertained against Yeovil and few other games along the way and hope for continued positive signs.

[Modgull]

I know we don't normally do mid-table obscurity but that is all I can see us doing. As for next season, not sure of the contract situation but expect quite a turn-over again and yet another 'rebuilding' season.

[Teigngull]

Absolutely nothing wrong with rebuilding if & only if you use the right materials.
No good building an igloo in the desert !
Cheap & cheerful just to get squad numbers up is a false economy, we want fullbacks to play at fullback, wingers to hug the touchline etc etc, square pegs in round holes will not win you this league period.

[Taelee73]

Would be surprised if Hall, Wright and Moxey are here next season. Only Moxey looks fit enough and injury free to be considered.
And we know Play off final losers are put in a very difficult place for the following season. So a top 10 finish would be a great achievement in my eyes, after last seasons disappointment.
What concerns me is the five year plan, is next season the last? If so, would you imagine it's promotion or bust in the owners eyes.

[yellowarmygull]

Taking solely the last 5/6 games and the loss of Armstrong and Sparkes, a play off spot would need 4-5 signings which just isnt going to happen with the budget Gary Johnson has this season. Yeovil on Boxing Day was a good win however having subsequently seen the away game, Yeovil are a poor side and for the first 60 minutes in each we were equally so. A mistake from the opposition in each is what allowed us into those games and without them, we werent looking particularly good despite how good the results were and the highlight was certainly the fans in the away end at Yeovil who were fantastic. I can see us maybe getting one or two in this month but the end of this season is going to be a very interesting one as i dont believe any of the current squad are under contract for next season and a huge rebuild job will be needed. I cant see Little, Lemonheigh Evans, Wynter etc staying put and Wright, Hall and even Moxeys (despite his recent performances) best days are behind them - In Gary we trust but hes got one hell of a job on his hands especially with his comment about whether the Directors were listening in his post Yeovil interview which i took to mean he hasnt got much in the way of financial support to extend Armstrongs loan and/or bring in others... We shall see but another 3 points on Saturday would be good if the rain stops!

[desperado]

"Yeovil are a poor side" yellowarmygull ?
It's quite annoying when whenever we win a game the other side is crap . They were top of the current form table and unbeaten in ELEVEN games !! Yes it was a mistake that gave us the equaliser at Yeovil, but we were only behind to a freak goal, a good goal yes , but 99 out of 100 of those don't go in tbe net.
Teigngull wants wingers who "hug the touchline" - is he still in the 1960's Ernie Pym days ?!

[yellowarmygull]

Yes Yeovil are a poor side! I appreciate that their form was good going into the Christmas period but if you attended both games you would have to concede that they are very poor and very basic in their approach. Having also seen the likes of Halifax / Notts County / Chesterfield, Yeovil and Torquay are not at that level this season and mid table will be about right.

P.s The days of those touchline hugging wingers are gone with Garys 4-4-1-1 formation!

[happytorq]

Yes Yeovil are a poor side! I appreciate that their form was good going into the Christmas period but if you attended both games you would have to concede that they are very poor and very basic in their approach. Having also seen the likes of Halifax / Notts County / Chesterfield, Yeovil and Torquay are not at that level this season and mid table will be about right.

none of Notts County, Chesterfield, Wrexham or Stockport (apparently the leading lights in this division) have managed to beat us so far. 3 of those games were away. I don't know what measure you want to use to decide who is 'good' or 'poor' - Yeovil had been doing really well in the dozen or so games prior to playing us. What's more likely - that they had their unbeaten streak entirely through good fortune, or that we at least played some part in making them look poor?

it's always the same - when we lose it's because we're shit and it's all Little/Johnson/A.N. Other's fault, and when we win it's because the other team was crap and we scraped by. It's conference football; no one team is going to be great in every game. It's a battle, and games like the one NYD are indicative of the sort of thing you have to do to progress up the table.

The fact is that early in the season we were not very good - that's fair to say. But it's equally fair to say that in the past few weeks we have made significant improvements. I even felt we were pretty good at Eastleigh, despite losing. Is that improvement enough to give a shout of making the playoffs? Maybe, but at the very least we need to be looking up rather than down.

[standupsitdown]

I’ve had another look at the points to see the effect of our draw with Dagenham and last night’s other results.

An average of the previous four seasons, pro rata for 44 matches, is 69.6 points for 7th.

Based on points per game to date for this season 7th place would be 78.0 points (Wrexham).

Based on 4 year average we would need 69.9 points, so another 38.9 = 1.85 / game.

Based on pro rata 2021/22 we would need 78.0 points, so another 47.0 = 2.24 / game.

Maybe more realistic at this stage in the season to average the two (past seasons & first half this season) so we would need 74.0 points = 2.05 / game.

And we may well need an extra point as a goal difference deficit of 17 would need to be made up over 21 games.

Our current form is 16 points from the last 10 games, which over the season to date would have seen us 10th, so even our recent form isn’t good enough for a play-off place, let alone to make up about 10 points over 21 games.

To make seventh place we probably need championship form for the rest of the season.

A win against Dagenham would have improved our chances but a home draw against one of the top six suggests mid-table rather than league winning form.

I hope we can at least keep up good form and keep the season interesting even if 7th seems unlikely.

Four points from the next two games is a minimum requirement but six would see us making up ground.

[culmstockgull]

Gosh, standupsitdown, that is a lot of statistics, not sure what they tell us because each seasons requirements are different. One thing the Dagenham game showed me if I wasnt convinced before is that mid table should be considered an achievement this year and one I will gladly settle for. we draw matches we should win, we lose matches we should at least draw, we have a defence that on statistics cannot defend, only altrincham and the relegation teams have conceeded more than us. The top three teams have conceeded only half what we have and thats why they are where they are. To my my mind if you have a team that doesnt concede there is always a chance of nicking a winner.

[Wolborough]

Would be terrific to make the playoffs but frankly the current squad is too weak and too small to consistently wrap up enough wins.

[standupsitdown]

I think the above two posters are right.
We’re a mid table team and it’s very unlikely that we’ll achieve the championship winning form probably required to reach the playoffs.
Key defeats were Barnet and Aldershot within a few days. Shouldn’t have lost either but we’re not keeping clean sheets and picking up 1.0 wins.

[desperado]

Don't think GJs teams do many 1-0 wins !
To be fair I think over the last 6 weeks we have tightened up (7 goals in 6 games) and defended a lot better. Lewis and Moxey (fighting it out for player of the year surely) have looked solid at the back, Wynter who I thought didn't look quite up to his normal level early season is looking sharper and Martin is improving with every game. If we could retain the ball better further forward we wouldn't be under so much pressure as we were v Dagenham.

[standupsitdown]

A good result today but still a proverbial mountain to climb.

7 points off 7th place but all our rivals bar Dagenham have at least one game in hand - Notts County and Boreham Wood have three in hand.

It's hard to make up ground at the top as most teams pick up regular wins and with the bottom three so poor and no team pulling away at the top it looks as if the play off positions may well need more points than in most seasons.

With four teams to overtake we can't rely on one side going on a poor run.

But in our favour is good current form, fewer games (league and cup) to play and probably an easier fixture list than the first half of the season.

If the clubs above us were all to gain 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season we'd need to get 40 points from our last 20 games - 2 points a game. That's about the same as Chesterfield & Halifax at the top this season and is championship winning form. However its likely that some of our rivals will continue to gain points at a similar rate to the first half of the season, in which case we'd need more than 40 more points.

Despite recent good results it looks very much a long shot but the next two home games will go a long well to telling us if there's a realistic chance. Beat Solihull & Wrexham and we can have more realistic hope of the play offs - then two away wins and a win in the final at Wembley!