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Gullscorer
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Post by Gullscorer »

The police and the Electoral Commission are investigating the South Thanet expenses allegations. They will try their best to avoid it, but it's possible that last year's election result will be declared void, which could also mean possible prosecutions by the police/CPS.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 60791.html
http://www.channel4.com/news/election-e ... nted-scale

The resulting by-election would give Nigel Farage another chance to be elected as MP.

However, if the 'Leave' campaign wins the EU Referendum, it's very likely that David Cameron will resign, after which a general election will be announced, following the passing of a Parliamentary motion by a two-thirds majority. A general election in which Farage will win his Westminster seat and UKIP will make massive gains.

All of which remains to be seen, of course, but it's possible.. :)
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Post by Jerry »

Gullscorer wrote:The police and the Electoral Commission are investigating the South Thanet expenses allegations. They will try their best to avoid it, but it's possible that last year's election result will be declared void, which could also mean possible prosecutions by the police/CPS.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 60791.html
http://www.channel4.com/news/election-e ... nted-scale

The resulting by-election would give Nigel Farage another chance to be elected as MP.

However, if the 'Leave' campaign wins the EU Referendum, it's very likely that David Cameron will resign, after which a general election will be announced, following the passing of a Parliamentary motion by a two-thirds majority. A general election in which Farage will win his Westminster seat and UKIP will make massive gains.

All of which remains to be seen, of course, but it's possible.. :)
Don't see why you think there would be an election if Cameron resigned. We didn't have one when Blair jacked it in. No doubt the Tories would just give the job to Boris.

Also, if the leave campaign wins I would expect that to be the end of UKIP rather than them making massive gains. After all, their job will have been done wouldn't it?
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Post by Dave »

Jerry wrote: Also, if the leave campaign wins I would expect that to be the end of UKIP rather than them making massive gains. After all, their job will have been done wouldn't it?
I don't totally agree with this Jerry. We all know that if vote leave win then Brexit will take 2-3 years to complete, it will not happen overnight, I think UKIP will re-position themselves, their main objective has been to get the UK out of the EU as we know.

I'd expect UKIP to campaign heavily for their policies particularly on immigration, and to be part of the shaping of a post EU Britain, and to that they'll need to get MP's elected, and continue to be successful at local elections, so there will be a place for that them to start with, the thing that's most likely to kill of UKIP would be a change of leadership in the Tory party.

Personally think vote remain will win sadly in the end, but it will be by a very narrow margin, and on that Cameron will be toast, there will be a leadership challenge, should Boris win and continue down his current route that could make life very difficult for UKIP post Brexit.
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Post by Jerry »

You may well be right Forever.

I think the result you forecast is the most likely and also the worst possible outcome. A narrow victory for Remain will just leave the door open for another referendum a few years down the line with all the uncertainty that will bring.

Far better a decisive Remain vote or a Leave vote by any sort of margin. I think at least then we will know where we stand and can plan for the future, whether that be in or out of the EU.
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Post by PhilGull »

I don't think there can be an election can there? Fixed-term parliaments are now the law, no?
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Post by Dave »

Yes there can be an early election under the fixed term parliament act. If a motion of no confidence in the government was voted on and carried, then the government would collapse and a general election required, this could be brought about by the government being in a position where by it can't get any of its acts through parliament, and with a very slender majority it wouldn't take to many disgruntled Tory MP's to bring this about.

However I don't think the referendum will bring about the collapse of the government, but I do think anything less than a convincing win for vote remain will bring about a leadership challenge and potentially the end of Cameron as prime minster.
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Post by Gullscorer »

Wow! Quite a rant! And she probably has a couple of guns in her handbag.. Fox News:

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Post by Gullscorer »

On the weekend of 9/10 July, somebody threw a bottle and broke the office window of UKIP MEP Margot Parker in Northamptonshire. Bet you never knew about this; it was not considered newsworthy, and there was no political capital to be made out of the incident at the time. Not that any of the media or news organisations were biased, of course.

On the night of 11/12 July, somebody threw a brick and broke the office window of Labour MP Angela Eagle, challenger of Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the party. Is there anybody who didn't hear this news? It was plastered all over the media and mentioned numerous times on the BBC and other channels. Because it was newsworthy, and there were a number of political agendas to be pursued. Not that any of the media or news organisations are biased, of course.
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Post by Jerry »

Gullscorer wrote:On the weekend of 9/10 July, somebody threw a bottle and broke the office window of UKIP MEP Margot Parker in Northamptonshire. Bet you never knew about this; it was not considered newsworthy, and there was no political capital to be made out of the incident at the time. Not that any of the media or news organisations were biased, of course.

On the night of 11/12 July, somebody threw a brick and broke the office window of Labour MP Angela Eagle, challenger of Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the party. Is there anybody who didn't hear this news? It was plastered all over the media and mentioned numerous times on the BBC and other channels. Because it was newsworthy, and there were a number of political agendas to be pursued. Not that any of the media or news organisations are biased, of course.
Or it could be that Eagle is a well known MP currently in the news as she is contesting the leadership of the Official Opposition, whereas Parker is a political non-entity who isn't currently in the news and represents a party with only one MP. :}
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Post by Gullscorer »

Jerry that is, for the most part, the point I was making: those in the public eye, and those who shout loudest, are the ones who get all the attention; the others are ignored. Yet the crime they suffered is the same (I'm assuming here that neither of these crimes are 'false flag' events carried out by their own supporters in order to claim 'victimhood', sympathy and support, and to demonise their opponents). OK one expects these reactions in the press and media: as you say, Eagle is, understandably and for obvious reasons, currently in the news.

But when such attitudes become institutionalised and embedded in areas such as education, health, the law, politics, police, and public services, then we should all be concerned. In fact, this has been happening for some years now, thanks to Political Correctness and various pressure groups claiming that very same 'victimhood', whilst others without a voice have been ignored and continue to suffer in silence.

As for UKIP, they achieved 3.9 million votes in the last general election, but only one MP. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) got only 2.5 million votes, but 65 MPs ! The EU elections two years ago resulted in UKIP being the largest party of MEPs in the UK. Thanks to the efforts of UKIP and Nigel Farage over the years, the UK finally got its EU referendum, and decided for 'Brexit' with the largest ever turnout of UK electors in history.

With Labour in disarray and Conservatives still split over the EU, UKIP's existence remains (if I may use that word ;-) ) relevant and essential, to ensure Brexit is properly carried through by Theresa May and her team, so the country can unite sufficiently for the UK to move forward into a successful and prosperous future as an independent sovereign worldwide trading nation with one of the world's largest economies, while the anti-democratic EU, with its worsening economy, failed currency, and all its demographic and social problems, continues to decline.
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Post by Southampton Gull »

Gullscorer wrote:
As for UKIP, they achieved 3.9 million votes in the last general election, but only one MP. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) got only 2.5 million votes, but 65 MPs ! The EU elections two years ago resulted in UKIP being the largest party of MEPs in the UK. Thanks to the efforts of UKIP and Nigel Farage over the years, the UK finally got its EU referendum, and decided for 'Brexit' with the largest ever turnout of UK electors in history.
I was going to answer Jerry with this. There is no doubt that if we want to rid ourselves of these zionists from our two leading parties then proportional representation is a must for this country.
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