The National League Form Table.

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portugull
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The National League Form Table.

Post by portugull » 26 Nov 2017, 11:03

In the latest Form Table United are up to 9th with 9 points from the last 6 matches. (50%)
The way things stand the 2 Christmas/New Year games with Eastleigh could prove to be very significant as Eastleigh have been struggling and blew a 3-1 lead at Halifax yesterday both goalkeepers being sent off. How often does that happen?


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Post by Swanny » 02 Dec 2017, 22:55

Now we have played precisely half the season, 23 games, it is an appropriate time to grasp what sort of form we will need to survive relegation this season. If we assume we need 50 points to survive which is normally enough to escape relegation we still need 32 points from our remaining 23 games. If you double 32 points that makes 64 points. If you see where 64 points gets you over a complete season it is typically just over half way, between 10th. to 12th. position.

In other words we need to perform at least as an upper mid table team for the rest of the season in order to just survive relegation. Our recent improvement in form would suggest we are capable of this but we certainly cannot afford to slip back to losing habits. I think it will be a close call.


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Post by Swanny » 04 Dec 2017, 09:18

I've just checked how many points the team 4th. from bottom have ended up with over previous seasons. I was quite surprised how varied their points total have been since the National League went to 46 games. The 4th. from bottom team has finished with between 41 points (once) to 51 points (twice). 46 points was the most popular (3 times).

It is difficult to therefore gauge how many points Torquay will need to survive this season. It could be a false sense of security to think only something in the late 40's will be enough. That's why so many fans only feel secure if their club gets over 50 points. As stated above, if we perform as an upper mid table team for the rest of the season we will definitely be ok and we may even survive if we perform a little worse than that. Interesting...


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Post by Jeff » 04 Dec 2017, 16:51

I distinctly remember someone saying that from the day GO took over, we’d need to average 1.3points a game to reach 51. So basically 4 points for every 3 games. I’ve been judging things by that marker ever since.

The Orient game represented the end of the 4th three-game run, and saw us on 14 points out of the target of 16. And that includes games such as the late submission of points against Barrow and D&R, plus defeats in games where we had the better of the play.

The draw with the shots keeps us ticking over, but we need to win at least one of the next two to keep close to target


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Post by kevgull » 04 Dec 2017, 17:14

We’ve now got a super fit squad playing for a manager that is now up to speed with the National League.

I’m predicting a mid table finish along side a FA Thropy quarter final place, at the very least.
Life is like TUFC. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. :goal:


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Post by nickbrod » 04 Dec 2017, 17:52

At the moment this is an odd season as Sutton, currently top, have 42 points; at about this stage last season albeit having played 24 games, Dagenham & Redbridge were top with 51 points while 18 points would have put you 5th or 6th (depending on goal difference) from bottom.


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Post by portugull » 04 Dec 2017, 18:52

I am hugely encouraged by the teams improvement under Gary and Martin.
However I feel there is no room for complacency as this League is so very competitive and there are no easy games.
At present Guiseley have 2 games in hand and Paul Cox is good at making his team hard to beat. They did suffer 2 red cards yesterday in a F A Cup match which helps a little losing 0-5 at Home.
Solihull have a new Manager and Barrow are improving.
Eastleigh and Halifax are struggling and our survival is about taking our chances.
Again on Saturday we came so close 6 times BUT did not score.That has got to change and I think it will.
We need to work on set pieces.They should be scoring opportunities but how often do we score. Not often enough!!
COYY


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Post by forevertufc » 05 Dec 2017, 00:07

No need for any clever over-analysis, all the team can do is win there own games, then other teams results are no longer a problem. Last season after 43 games, the team had 44 points, average 1.02 points per game, they needed to average 2 points a game over the last 3 match's to make the 50 point target, which would have been just enough on goal difference to stay.

The team obviously averaged 3 points a game from no where, over the last 3 games, there's no rhyme or reason to this, maths and science don't come in to it, our teams current form is temporary, but then so is every other team, the picture as I've maintained all the way along can, and right now for us, has changed very quickly


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Post by merse btpir » 05 Dec 2017, 08:20

forevertufc wrote:
05 Dec 2017, 00:07
No need for any clever over-analysis, all the team can do is win there own games, then other teams results are no longer a problem.
Exactly; football is a simple game made complicated by simpletons who think there is a mathematical solution better than merely making an inanimate object move in a different manner than merely kicking it better than somebody else....there; that's profound isn't it!

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