The Task Ahead with 33 Games to Play

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portugull
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The Task Ahead with 33 Games to Play

Post by portugull »

Looking back to last season we finished 17th with 53 points winning 14 drawing 11 and losing 21.

With 4 points from 13 games we need to win 12, draw 12, and only lose 9 more games out of 33 to reach 52 points.

It just shows what a big task United face given that York City were relegated with 50 points last season.

The next 5 games 3 of which are at Home really are the key to whether or not we can survive after taking just 4 points from a possible 39.

We all need to get down to Plainmoor on Tuesday night to get behind the team because October is going to be crucial make no mistake.
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Post by Swanny »

Good thread that shows the big task ahead to just survive relegation. Let's say we need 50 points to survive, we need 46 points from the remaining 33 games = 1.39 per game (I calculated 1.33 when Owers took over). Over 46 games, 1.39 would give you 64 points over a whole season. In the last 5 seasons in the National League this would finish between 10th. to 12th. position.

In other words for the remainder of the season we have to perform like an upper mid table team JUST TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SURVIVE! This is a tough ask but not out of the question, yet anyway.

It does annoy when posters casually say that we have loads of points to play for, it's only October or we are only 3 wins from safety. You have to take in account that other teams will pick up points as well! The longer this winless run continues the harder the task to survive will become. It is vital we start picking up wins now and at least get draws. Portugull is spot on when he is says October is a vital month and let's get to Plainmoor to support the team. Even by November our fate may be realistically more or less sealed such is our perilous position.
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Post by merse btpir »

Swanny wrote: 01 Oct 2017, 20:58It does annoy when posters casually say that we have loads of points to play for, it's only October or we are only 3 wins from safety. You have to take in account that other teams will pick up points as well!
Probably the same ostrich-like head buriers who claimed that after Tranmere, Aldershot and Gateshead we would be 'OK' as we had Boreham Wood, Guiseley, Solihull and Woking to gain easy points off. :rules:
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Post by westyorkshiregull »

Lightening doesn't strike twice ; but it did , can't seeing another great escape though can't see what's great about it. I'm looking forward to the fa cup 4th round priminary stage draw , welcome break from the league.
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Post by desperado »

Doesnt seem long ago we were saying , soon be a quarter of the season gone, but in two games times it will
be a third, but when we win a game if we then win the next game, which is certainly a possibility 6 points would
put us right back in the scrap and the confidence would soar. We were 12 points adrift after 31 games so we can
do this
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Post by standupsitdown »

Tomorrow night is crucial. With recent signs of improvement in performances if not results I think there's still hope and a win tomorrow will bring confidence for the coming fixtures.
Wish I could be there.
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Post by Dave »

Don't think it's got anything thing to with people burying their heads in the sand, we all know the situation even after tonight is still looking bleak. But how can the fanbase expect the players to believe they can avoid the drop, if the fanbase doesn't believe themselves.

Thing is, all these stats are neither here, nor there. The beauty is, all the teams still have to play each other, some twice, they can't all win every game, our team have to do is concentrate on winning their own games, win their own games, the rest will sort itself out.

There is the time and the points to escapes this.
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Post by lucy6lucy »

It's pretty obvious after 14 games that 50 points will keep any side up this season, last season had no teams adrift until the final 8 games. Despite our abysmal start, we find ourselves only 5 points from safety. And that is a brucie bonus, as last season we would have been double digit from safety. We seem to have improved performance so a 5 point deficit is nothing with the number of games remaining. 43-45 points will be enough this season. And to justify how tight(or bad) the league is, Macclesfield who are top have a goal difference of +1.
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Post by tomogull »

lucy6lucy wrote: 04 Oct 2017, 01:57 It's pretty obvious after 14 games that 50 points will keep any side up this season, last season had no teams adrift until the final 8 games. Despite our abysmal start, we find ourselves only 5 points from safety. And that is a brucie bonus, as last season we would have been double digit from safety. We seem to have improved performance so a 5 point deficit is nothing with the number of games remaining. 43-45 points will be enough this season. And to justify how tight(or bad) the league is, Macclesfield who are top have a goal difference of +1.
Hmm ...... I'm not sure I agree with you on this one, Lucy. Last season, Lincoln and Tranmere were well out in front with 99 and 95 points respectively and Southport and North Ferriby were adrift well before the end of the season. I can't see anyone getting near 95 points this season and I doubt any team will be well adrift. This means that the league will be a lot more compressed. I certainly don't think 43 - 45 points will be enough - more like 52 - 53 I reckon. Last night was a big step in the right direction but we need a few more wins to take us away from the bottom four.
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Post by portugull »

What is very surprising after 14 games ( 4 teams have only played 13) is that the top 13 teams are separated by just 5 points.

Macclesfield have taken 26 points from 42 a ratio of just 61.9%

It tends to prove any team can beat their opposition and there is no stand out team yet. This could change of course.
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Post by tomogull »

portugull wrote: 04 Oct 2017, 20:03 What is very surprising after 14 games ( 4 teams have only played 13) is that the top 13 teams are separated by just 5 points.

Macclesfield have taken 26 points from 42 a ratio of just 61.9%

It tends to prove any team can beat their opposition and there is no stand out team yet. This could change of course.
Yes - I had to check my glasses were reading right when I saw Macclesfield were top of the league last night. I don't believe it !!
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Post by lucy6lucy »

tomogull wrote: 04 Oct 2017, 20:54 Yes - I had to check my glasses were reading right when I saw Macclesfield were top of the league last night. I don't believe it !!
Maybe you might want to buy another pair of glasses, if your so shocked Macclesfield are top(+1) goal difference. And the league is so open, but reckon 52-53 points will be needed to survive relegation. At this rate 53 will get you top 10. There is no way mate no team will be relegated this season mid 40
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Post by tomogull »

lucy6lucy wrote: 04 Oct 2017, 21:44 Maybe you might want to buy another pair of glasses, if your so shocked Macclesfield are top(+1) goal difference. And the league is so open, but reckon 52-53 points will be needed to survive relegation. At this rate 53 will get you top 10. There is no way mate no team will be relegated this season mid 40
I think that you are looking at this the wrong way around. If teams near the top of the league are not picking up as many points as last season's top teams, it follows that teams lower down the league will be picking up more points. I think teams with mid 40 points will be in grave danger of relegation, but we shall have to wait and see ......
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Post by AlsagerGull »

Agree with tomogull the points will have to go somewhere!
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Post by nickbrod »

It all points to an exciting season top and bottom!
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